Hurt So Good

So, the World Cup draw…oof.

Of all the potential “Groups of Death,” the United States Men’s National Team ended up in possibly the deathiest, drawing top side Germany, recent World Cup bug-a-boo Ghana, and Cristiano Ronaldo-led Portugal in Group G.  That is, to put it lightly, not what we were looking for.

Four years ago, it was England, Slovenia, and Algeria.  That was a group we knew we could manage, and we did; two draws and a dramatic stoppage time win put the USMNT atop its group for the first time in 80 years.

If the U.S. wins its group this time, it might be the greatest miracle in sports history.

Here’s how I would rank the groups, from “ohmyGodWHY” to “I’m a little jealous right now”:

Group G: Germany, Ghana, Portugal, United States

Group B: Australia, Chile, Netherlands, Spain

Group D: Costa Rica, England, Italy, Uruguay

Group A: Brazil, Cameroon, Croatia, Mexico

Group F: Argentina, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iran, Nigeria

Group C: Colombia, Greece, Ivory Coast, Japan

Group E: Ecuador, France, Honduras, Switzerland

Group H: Algeria, Belgium, Russia, South Korea

I think Groups C, E, and H are all weak, but having Colombia and Ecuador playing on their home continent gives them a bump.

I know I’m biased, but I ranked Group G at the top because you have two European sides that are ranked in the top five in the current FIFA World Rankings (Germany is second, Portugal is fifth), the top team in North America (the United States, 14th in the world), and arguably the top team in Africa (Ghana is ranked 24th, second-highest in Africa behind Ivory Coast).

As difficult as this group is, a major takeaway is that it shows the growth of American soccer that our presence in a group makes it more difficult.  In 1998, we were matched with Germany (lost 2-0), Iran (lost 2-1), and Yugoslavia (lost 1-0).  We were ranked 32nd our of 32 teams at the end of the tournament.  Now, we’re in the “Group of Death,” partially because any group containing the USMNT is by its nature that much more difficult.  I like that.

Despite the horrendously unlucky draw, there’s a way through.  There is absolutely a way through.

The U.S. draws Ghana first.  Everyone is all worked up because Ghana eliminated the USMNT in the group stage in 2006 and the Round of 16 in 2010.  However, this is a winnable match.  The United States is better than it was in each of those tournaments, and should be able to beat Ghana.  Whether we do or not remains to be seen, but for the sake of the “how do we get through?” debate, let’s assume a U.S. victory.

Next is Portugal.  They have skilled players for sure, but their success begins and ends with Ronaldo.  Neutralize him and you can have success.  Unfortunately, we won’t be able to neutralize him.  But a draw is certainly not out of the realm of possibility.

So we head into the group finale against manager Jurgen Klinsmann’s home nation, Germany, on four points.  Assume that Germany tops Portugal and Ghana in their first two games and are sitting on six points.  Portugal will likely beat Ghana and have four points of their own.  A draw puts the United States through, but even a loss, if the goal differentials work out, puts the USMNT into the knockout round.

And once you make it there, anything can happen.  Especially if Belgium stumbles; then the winner of Group H will be an eminently beatable team that is ranked below the United States in the current rankings.

So there it is.  Doom and gloom, but also a way out.  And if logic and reason aren’t enough to convince you it’s possible, consider this: possibly the greatest upset of World Cup history, and certainly the greatest upset in an American soccer history, took place when the U.S. topped England, 1-0, in the 1950 World Cup.  Where was that match played?

Brazil.  The host of the 2014 World Cup.

I’m just saying.

When They Draw My Name From the Lottery

Tomorrow is the draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil.  By noonish Eastern Time, we’ll have a pretty good idea of who has an easy road to the knockout stage and who got totally screwed by a bunch of ping pong balls.

I cannot wait.  In fact, my buddy and I did a prediction contest four years ago and I won, 2-0, so I have a title to defend!

(Yes, we conducted our own random draws to predict the outcome of a random draw, and we compared the results.  As I have told you many times, we are sick.)

Anyway, here’s how it works:

• The host, Brazil, plus the top seven teams in the October 2013 FIFA rankings are considered the “seeded” teams for the draw.  They will be placed in Pot 1.  The remaining pots are constructed to ensure as much geographic separation as possible: the five African qualifiers plus Chile and Ecuador make up Pot 2, Asian and North American qualifiers go into Pot 3, and the European nations that are not seeded make up Pot 4.  P.S. Pot 4 is loaded.

• One of the European teams in that loaded fourth pot will be drawn at random and placed in Pot 2 to even the pots at eight teams each.

• As the hosts, Brazil will be placed in Group A, and then the seven remaining seeds will be drawn sequentially into Groups B through H.

• A new pot, “Pot X,” will be created, consisting of the four seeded South American teams.  Whoever is drawn from Pot X will have the European team that was drawn into Pot 2 placed in its group; this prevents any group from having three European teams.

• The remaining teams from Pot 2 will be drawn sequentially into Groups A through H.  If a South American team from Pot 2 is drawn into a group with a South American team from Pot 1, they will be bumped down sequentially through the remaining groups until they are placed with a European seed.

• The teams from Pots 3 and 4 will be drawn sequentially into their groups.

• After the four members of each group are assigned, there will be a draw among the unseeded teams to decide who will play who in what order.  Don’t worry, we’re not predicting that.  We’re just trying to get the right teams into the right groups.

Before I conduct my predictive draw, here is who is in each pot:

Pot 1: Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Colombia, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, Uruguay

Pot 2: Algeria, Cameroon, Chile, Ecuador, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria

Pot 3: Australia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Iran, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, United States

Pot 4: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, England, France, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Russia

Here we go!

Group A: Brazil, Nigeria, United States, Italy

Group B: Switzerland, Ecuador, Australia, England

Group C: Germany, Chile, Japan, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Group D: Uruguay, Croatia, Honduras, Portugal

Group E: Spain, Ivory Coast, South Korea, Greece

Group F: Argentina, Cameroon, Mexico, France

Group G: Colombia, Algeria, Costa Rica, Russia

Group H: Belgium, Ghana, Iran, Netherlands

(Notes: Croatia was the European team drawn into Pot 2.  Uruguay was drawn from Pot X.  Ecuador was drawn into Group A, but moved to Group B.)

Oof.  Poor USA.  The Americans appear to have drawn the “Group of Death” this time around, with hosts Brazil and maybe-should-have-been-seeded Italy.  That group has three of the top 14 in the current rankings (Brazil is ranked 10th because, as the hosts, they didn’t play any qualifiers, so they didn’t earn many ranking points).

However, should the Americans be able to squeeze into the knockout stages, a tasty matchup with the winner of Group B would await.  I say “tasty” simply because Switzerland is the weakest of the seeded teams, England is notorious for underachieving, and Ecuador is the lowest-ranked of the South American squads (but may surprise people playing on their home continent).  Playing any of those teams after dealing with Brazil and Italy would almost be like a vacation.

I would consider Group G to be by far the easiest draw; in that spot, Colombia might as well have a bye to the Round of 16, and you might see Costa Rica sneak through.

Looking to the knockout stages, this draw would likely set up a Round of 16 match between Spain and either Mexico or France.  Sweet.  Or, should one of them falter and finish second in their group, Spain and Argentina.  Even sweeter.  You could also see England taking on Brazil or Germany facing Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal.

Of course, this is all for fun.  We’ll know the real draw in just a few hours.  I’ll probably break it down tomorrow night, because I am a dork and I absolutely love the World Cup.