When They Draw My Name From the Lottery

Tomorrow is the draw for the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil.  By noonish Eastern Time, we’ll have a pretty good idea of who has an easy road to the knockout stage and who got totally screwed by a bunch of ping pong balls.

I cannot wait.  In fact, my buddy and I did a prediction contest four years ago and I won, 2-0, so I have a title to defend!

(Yes, we conducted our own random draws to predict the outcome of a random draw, and we compared the results.  As I have told you many times, we are sick.)

Anyway, here’s how it works:

• The host, Brazil, plus the top seven teams in the October 2013 FIFA rankings are considered the “seeded” teams for the draw.  They will be placed in Pot 1.  The remaining pots are constructed to ensure as much geographic separation as possible: the five African qualifiers plus Chile and Ecuador make up Pot 2, Asian and North American qualifiers go into Pot 3, and the European nations that are not seeded make up Pot 4.  P.S. Pot 4 is loaded.

• One of the European teams in that loaded fourth pot will be drawn at random and placed in Pot 2 to even the pots at eight teams each.

• As the hosts, Brazil will be placed in Group A, and then the seven remaining seeds will be drawn sequentially into Groups B through H.

• A new pot, “Pot X,” will be created, consisting of the four seeded South American teams.  Whoever is drawn from Pot X will have the European team that was drawn into Pot 2 placed in its group; this prevents any group from having three European teams.

• The remaining teams from Pot 2 will be drawn sequentially into Groups A through H.  If a South American team from Pot 2 is drawn into a group with a South American team from Pot 1, they will be bumped down sequentially through the remaining groups until they are placed with a European seed.

• The teams from Pots 3 and 4 will be drawn sequentially into their groups.

• After the four members of each group are assigned, there will be a draw among the unseeded teams to decide who will play who in what order.  Don’t worry, we’re not predicting that.  We’re just trying to get the right teams into the right groups.

Before I conduct my predictive draw, here is who is in each pot:

Pot 1: Argentina, Belgium, Brazil, Colombia, Germany, Spain, Switzerland, Uruguay

Pot 2: Algeria, Cameroon, Chile, Ecuador, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria

Pot 3: Australia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Iran, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, United States

Pot 4: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, England, France, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Russia

Here we go!

Group A: Brazil, Nigeria, United States, Italy

Group B: Switzerland, Ecuador, Australia, England

Group C: Germany, Chile, Japan, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Group D: Uruguay, Croatia, Honduras, Portugal

Group E: Spain, Ivory Coast, South Korea, Greece

Group F: Argentina, Cameroon, Mexico, France

Group G: Colombia, Algeria, Costa Rica, Russia

Group H: Belgium, Ghana, Iran, Netherlands

(Notes: Croatia was the European team drawn into Pot 2.  Uruguay was drawn from Pot X.  Ecuador was drawn into Group A, but moved to Group B.)

Oof.  Poor USA.  The Americans appear to have drawn the “Group of Death” this time around, with hosts Brazil and maybe-should-have-been-seeded Italy.  That group has three of the top 14 in the current rankings (Brazil is ranked 10th because, as the hosts, they didn’t play any qualifiers, so they didn’t earn many ranking points).

However, should the Americans be able to squeeze into the knockout stages, a tasty matchup with the winner of Group B would await.  I say “tasty” simply because Switzerland is the weakest of the seeded teams, England is notorious for underachieving, and Ecuador is the lowest-ranked of the South American squads (but may surprise people playing on their home continent).  Playing any of those teams after dealing with Brazil and Italy would almost be like a vacation.

I would consider Group G to be by far the easiest draw; in that spot, Colombia might as well have a bye to the Round of 16, and you might see Costa Rica sneak through.

Looking to the knockout stages, this draw would likely set up a Round of 16 match between Spain and either Mexico or France.  Sweet.  Or, should one of them falter and finish second in their group, Spain and Argentina.  Even sweeter.  You could also see England taking on Brazil or Germany facing Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal.

Of course, this is all for fun.  We’ll know the real draw in just a few hours.  I’ll probably break it down tomorrow night, because I am a dork and I absolutely love the World Cup.

You Can’t Make the Grade

With the Red Sox win over the Tigers just a couple minutes ago (full disclosure: I started writing after Shane Victorino’s grand slam), the World Series is set.  It’s a rematch of the 2004 series that gave Boston its first title in 86 years.

You know how I feel about the Red Sox, so God willing, the Cardinals will do the deed this time.

Anyway, since I was so brazen as to post my playoff predictions a few weeks ago, let’s see how I did.

WILD CARD GAMES: Nailed ’em both.  The Pirates and Rays were victorious, and neither game was particularly nail-biting.

NL DIVISION SERIES: I could not have been more correct.  As much as I wanted the Pirates to win, I picked the Cardinals in five, and that’s what happened.  The Dodgers also took care of business at home, winning in four games, as I predicted.  Hey, maybe I’m not so bad at this.

AL DIVISION SERIES: “Hey, maybe I’m not so bad at this.” – me, five seconds ago.  Your honor, may I present exhibit A: I had the A’s in four and the Rays in five.  Instead, it was the Tigers in five and the Red Sox in four.  I insist that the A’s were jobbed on that fan interference call in Game 4 that pretty much sucked the momentum out of the dugout, and as such, do not recognize the result of the series as valid.  However, Major League Baseball did, and it’s their playoffs, so really, who am I?

AL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES: I whiffed, so let’s not even bother.  Although I did pick it to go six games.

NL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES: I also picked this one to go six games, and it did.  In addition, I picked Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw to be the MVP of the World Series, and if you watched Game 6 of the NLCS, you could argue that he was.  Unfortunately for Kershaw and the Dodgers, it was his horrible outing that was most valuable to the Cardinals getting to the World Series as they returned to the fall classic for the fourth time in 10 seasons.  That’s impressive.

So there you have it.  I started out on fire, and ended with a whimper.  And that’s actually kind of insulting to whimpers, to be honest.

October Road

October is here, which means the MLB playoffs will be getting underway later tonight.

Well, kind of.  I still don’t know how I feel about the one-game Wild Card round.  Baseball, more than any other sport, can be affected by the random things that cause a far superior team to lose to an inferior one.  Even the winningest teams of all-time, the 1906 Chicago Cubs and the 2001 Seattle Mariners (116 wins apiece), only won 76 and 72 percent, respectively, of their games.  There is a reason that the baseball postseason has always been conducted via series.

However, the four wild card teams playing the next two nights already got t-shirts and sprayed champagne and everything, so I guess they’re officially in.

Anyway, here are my picks for the playoffs.  They’re guaranteed to be correct, except when they’re not.

NL WILD CARD GAME: Francisco Liriano has been lights out at home for the Pirates, and lefties have struggled against him all year.  The Reds are lefty-heavy, and Johnny Cueto hasn’t exactly been very good in his playoff career.  He’s also coming off a season that he missed much of due to injury.  I’m going with the Pirates.

AL WILD CARD GAME: The Indians will throw Danny Salazar tomorrow night.  I picked him up for a couple fantasy baseball spot starts (I WON MY LEAGUE!  I WON MY LEAGUE!) late this season, and he always posted a bunch of strikeouts, but never went deep into the game.  The Rays counter with Alex Cobb, who’s been pitching well of late.  I like me some Rays.

NL DIVISION SERIES: I’ll be honest; I want the Pirates to win.  They haven’t had a winning season since I was in third grade.  Come on.  But the Cardinals are going to be tough.  I think it’s a fairly even series (Pittsburgh won 10 of 19 during the regular season), but having Game 5 at home will be the difference.  On the other side, I know the Braves beat up the Phillies the last weekend of the season, but I’m not buying what they’re selling.  Give me Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke over Kris Medlen and Mike Minor, and give me the Cardinals in 5 and the Dodgers in 4.

AL DIVISION SERIES: I feel like I pick the A’s to win every time they make the playoffs, and they reward me by bowing out immediately.  But Detroit…I mean, I know it was meaningless, but the Tigers just got swept by the Marlins.  That is not the right kind of momentum to have entering the postseason.  I’m going to take a risk with the other series, too; the Red Sox had the best record in the American League, and took 12 of 19 from Tampa Bay, but the Rays are set to have David Price pitch two games in Fenway Park.  He won consecutive starts there earlier this season, and if there’s anyone on the Tampa Bay roster that can handle the moment in a decisive game in that environment, it’s Price.  I’m taking the Rays in 5 and the A’s in 4.

NL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES: The Cardinals have a potent offense, outscoring the rest of the National League by nearly a hundred runs this season.  But I tend to side with pitching, and while St. Louis has Adam Wainwright, he can only pitch two or three games in the series.  Kershaw and Greinke can handle five.  I think it only goes six.  Dodgers in 6 (MVP: Yasiel Puig).

AL CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES: There are like four people outside of the respective Bay areas that would watch this series, but I am one of them.  Oakland and Tampa Bay have the 26th- and 27th-highest payrolls in baseball, and one of them will make the World Series.  Even though my team is among the top few in payroll, I like seeing these sorts of teams succeed.  This is an even riskier pick, since they could lose tomorrow and submarine the whole ordeal, but I will take the Rays in 6 (MVP: Evan Longoria).

WORLD SERIES: Another bi-coastal showdown.  A great pitching matchup.  I would certainly enjoy this series, even if no one else would.  For some reason, people are hesitant to acknowledge that he is the best pitcher in baseball, but this year, Kershaw will raise the World Series MVP trophy as his Dodgers earn a ring for manager Don Mattingly.  Dodgers in 6 (MVP: Clayton Kershaw).

So there you have it.  I can’t wait to amend these on Thursday.  And next week.